PhD Defense: Alexandra Verlhiac

Alexandra Verlhiac will defend her dissertation on the analysis of how residential location preferences evolve and how these shifts affect real estate dynamics. Her work draws on three quasi-natural experiments: the Covid-19 crisis, wildfires, and the opening of new transport infrastructures. These shocks shed light on residential trade-offs and market adjustments. The originality of the dissertation lies in the use of data from the online real estate platforms Meilleurs Agents and SeLoger (AVIV Group), complemented by postal forwarding data and short-term rental records. Methodologically, the dissertation relies on discrete choice models and causal inference approaches (difference-in-differences, synthetic methods, and staggered treatment designs). The first chapter analyzes how households’ location preferences evolved during the Covid-19 crisis using discrete choice models. Based on real estate valuations produced by Meilleurs Agents, we reconstruct flows of intended residential mobility between January 2019 and September 2021. By estimating a dwelling both as sellers and as buyers, households reveal their underlying aspirations. The results show that the probability for an urban resident to search in an urban rather than a rural area decreases relative to the pre-Covid period. The likelihood of considering a move outside one’s functional area increases for both urban and rural residents. The second chapter assesses the impact of the 2022 wildfires in the Landes forest massif on residential intentions, residential choices, and the real estate market. Using synthetic difference-in-differences, we identify the causal impact through a rich dataset combining SeLoger listings, La Poste mail-forwarding contracts, property transactions (DV3F), and short-term rental data (AirDNA). Our findings reveal a sharp increase in the supply of properties for sale and for rent, accompanied by longer time-on-market durations. Demand, however, contracts—both in terms of intentions and actual mobility. Property transactions increase slightly, as does the use of short-term rentals, pointing to a reconfiguration of the market rather than a resurgence in dynamism. The third chapter evaluates the effects of the opening of new metro and tramway lines on the Île-de-France housing market. I separately identify their influence on supply, demand, and market tightness. User behavior data from SeLoger, combined with transaction records (DVF) and the Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) estimator, allow the measurement of heterogeneous effects. The treated group (areas surrounding the new stations) is compared with three control groups to distinguish proximity effects, accessibility gains, and anticipation effects. The commissioning of a metro line increases market tightness through shorter selling times, higher demand, and higher listing prices. These effects reflect a valuation of proximity to stations and commissioning effects that exceed anticipation effects. The absence of effects on sale prices suggests anticipatory capitalization. Market transformations appear specific to metro lines, as the opening of tramway lines has no observable effect. Overall, this dissertation highlights how households adapt their residential choices and how the housing market reacts to shocks that reshape the decision-making environment. From the growing appeal of rural areas and the attractiveness of new metro lines, to the market adjustments triggered by climate-related risks, the insights from this dissertation are essential for informing planning strategies and supporting territorial adaptation to contemporary transformations.